基于小波分析与模糊集合的唐山市气象水文特征研究

Study on Meteorological and Hydrological Characteristics of Tangshan City Based on Wavelet Analysis and Fuzzy Sets

以唐山市1980年～2010年逐日降水资料为依据,统计雨季旬次降水信息,并运用小波分析和模糊集合分析法探究汛期降水时间变化分期特征。结果表明,唐山市汛期降水量呈凸峰型分布,集中于7月～8月;汛期降水具有20 d、38 d、48 d等多个时间周期,其中20 d为主周期;模糊集合划分了该市降水的主汛期为6月28日至8月20日,与经验分期隶属度值相一致,并且前汛期与主汛期极值序列呈增加趋势,后汛期呈减少趋势,但并未达到统计显著水平。

Based on the daily precipitation data from 1980 to 2010 in Tangshan, the precipitation information of the rainy season was counted, and the wavelet analysis and fuzzy set analysis method were used to explore the characteristics of the precipitation time change during flood season. The results show that the precipitation in the flood season in Tangshan City is a convex peak type, which is concentrated in July to August. The precipitation in the flood season has multiple time periods such as 20d, 38d and 48d, of which 20d is the main period;the fuzzy set divides the precipitation of the city. The main flood season is from June 28th to August 20th, which is consistent with the empirical sub-degree membership value, and the extreme sequence of the pre-flood period and the main flood season shows an increasing trend, but the post-flood period shows a decreasing trend, but it has not reached the statistically significant level.