金融发展影响碳排放的门槛效应分析

Analysis of the Threshold Effect of Financial Development Affecting Carbon Emissions

文章基于Hansen提出的面板门槛模型,选取2000—2015年西部各省份金融发展与碳排放相关数据,分别以经济发展水平和城镇化水平作为门槛变量,研究了金融发展对于碳排放的非线性影响。研究结果表明:以城镇化水平作为门槛变量,金融发展对碳排放影响存在双门槛,具体表现为城镇化水平较低时,金融发展促进碳排放;城镇化水平较高时,金融发展抑制碳排放。以经济发展作为门槛时,整体上金融发展抑制了碳排放增长,但对碳排放影响存在单门槛,表现为随着经济发展水平的提高,金融发展对于碳排放的抑制作用减弱。最后根据实证结果提出相应的政策及建议。

Based on the panel threshold model proposed by Hansen, this paper selects the financial development and carbon emission data of the western provinces from 2000 to 2015, and uses the economic development level and urbanization level as the threshold variables to study the non-linear effects of financial development on carbon emissions. The results show that with the urbanization level as the threshold, the impact of financial development on carbon emissions has a double threshold,which is reflected in the fact that financial development promotes carbon emissions when urbanization is low and it inhibits carbon emissions when it is higher. When economic development is the threshold, financial development inhibits carbon emissions growth, but there is a single threshold for the impact of carbon emissions, which shows that as the level of economic development increases, the suppression of carbon emissions by financial development is weakened. Based on the empirical results, the corresponding policies and recommendations are proposed.