VAR视域下人民币汇率与我国进出口贸易的关联研究——基于脉冲响应分析

The Correlation between RMB Exchange Rate and China's Import and Export Trade under VAR Vision——Based on Impulse Response Analysis

采用向量自回归模型VAR的脉冲响应等操作,根据2010年—2017年共8年的月度数据实证分析了中国进出口贸易总额与人民币实际有效汇率的双向关联效应。研究表明:一是进口总额与人民币实际有效汇率的相互影响均不显著;二是出口总额对人民币实际有效汇率的影响显著性较强,人民币实际有效汇率对出口额的影响极为不显著。对此,政府机构应该强化出口政策的应变弹性,构建人民币汇率双向阀域内浮动的新常态,继续深化人民币汇率形成机制改革,同时有效配置外汇储备,加快出口结算人民币化乃至人民币国际化的进程。

Using the impulse response of vector autoregressive model(VAR), the two-way correlation between China's total import and export trade and the real effective exchange rate of RMB is empirically analyzed based on the monthly data of eight years from 2010 to 2017. The research shows that: First, the interaction between the total import volumeand the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is not significant. Second, the total export value has a significant impact on the real effective exchange rate of the RMB. The impact of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB on the export volume is extremely insignificant. In this regard, government agencies should strengthen the flexibility of export policies, establish a new normal of floating within the two-way valve area of the RMB exchange rate, and continue to deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, effectively allocate foreign exchange reserves and accelerate the process of export settlement in RMB and even RMB internationalization.