土地征收对农户收入的影响效应分析——基于倾向得分匹配模型的实证

Empirical analysis of the effects of land expropriation on farmers' income by the PSM model

被征地农户的生计问题关系社会稳定与经济发展大局,探讨征地对农户收入变化的影响具有非常重要的现实意义。基于北京师范大学中国收入分配研究院、国家统计局及国内外相关高校和研究机构共同完成的2013年中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP),利用倾向得分匹配模型(PSM),分别从征地时间和地区差异两个维度实证分析了征地政策对农户收入的净效应。结果表明,在未考虑样本征地时间与地区差异的情况下,征地可以显著增加农户收入水平,且被征地农户家庭总收入均值明显提高3 151元,但简单均值对比分析明显高估了征地对农户增收影响效应。从样本的征地时间差异可知,征地对于农户收入的影响效应随时间推移呈现"先降后升"的趋势,征地时间周期越长农户增收效应越明显,家庭总收入的净效应从2 632元逐渐提高到5 257元。从样本的地区差异可知,土地征收对于农户收入效应呈现出明显的区域差异性,不同经济发展水平的地区征地对农户收入水平的变化呈现差异性,而东部地区征地对农民的增收效应最为明显,而中西部地区征地并不能明显带来农户收入的增加。为切实提高中西部地区被征地农户收入水平,需要继续进一步完善农地的"三权分置"制度,鼓励闲置土地进行流转,结合农户特征与意愿提供多种形式的就业技能培训,适度提高中西部地区征地补偿标准,采取多元化的补偿安置模式。

The livelihood issues of land-lost farmers are related to the overall situation of social stability and economic development. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to discuss the impact of land acquisition on the changes of rural household income. Based on the 2013 National Household Income Survey Data(CHIP), completed by the China Institute for Income Distribution of Beijing Normal University, the National Bureau of Statistics, and related universities and research institutions at home and abroad, this paper empirically analyzes the income effects of land acquisition on farmers from the perspectives of land acquisition time and regional differences using the propensity score matching model(PSM). Results show that land acquisition can significantly increase farmers’ income if not considering land acquisition time and regional differences in the samples. The average income of land-expropriated farmers is significantly increased by 3 151 yuan. However, the simple mean comparison analysis overestimates the effect of land acquisition on farmers’ income increase. From the time difference of the sample, the effect of land acquisition on the income of farmers showed a trend of "first drop and then rise" over time. The longer the time period of land acquisition,the more obvious the effect of farmers’ income increases, and the net effect of the total income is gradually increased from 2 632 yuan to 5 257 yuan. From the regional difference of the samples, the effect of land expropriation on the income increase of farmers shows obvious regional differences. The regional land acquisition with different levels of economic development has different changes of farmers’ income, while the effect of land acquisition on farmers in the eastern region has increased. Most obviously, land acquisition in the central and western regions does not significantly increase farmers’ income. In order to effectively increase the income of land-expropriated farmers in the central and western regions of China, it is necessary to continue to improve the "Three Rights Division" system for agricultural land, to encourage idle agricultural land to be transferred, to provide various forms of employment skill trainings, to appropriately increase the compensation rates for land acquisition and adopt a diversified compensation method.