我国文冠果分布的气候地理特征及未来气候情景下适宜种植区预测

Geographical distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge in China and predicting suitable area under the climate change scenario

通过获取文冠果的种群分布点,基于影响文冠果生长的气候地理环境因子构建MaxEnt模型,探讨影响文冠果生长的主导气候地理环境因子条件,利用ArcGIS10.1平台对当前气候环境下文冠果的适宜种植区进行分析,并对未来不同气候情景下文冠果的适宜种植区进行预测,为文冠果的资源保护和未来种植提供理论依据和科学参考。结果表明:1)影响文冠果种植分布的主要因子有年降水量、年平均气温、温度年较差、高程和最干季降水量;2)在当前气候情景下,文冠果的高适宜种植区面积、适宜种植区面积、低适宜种植区面积和不适宜种植区面积分别占全国总面积的1.17%、2.85%、3.78%和92.20%,高适宜种植区主要分布在陕西、山西和甘肃;3)在未来不同的气候情景下,文冠果的高适宜种植区、适宜种植区的面积均呈扩大的趋势,随着时间的推移,文冠果的高适宜种植区和适宜种植区的面积也呈扩大趋势。

This research examined the current spatial distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge in China and identified its impacting factors using a MaxEnt model. The suitable cultivation regions in China under the current climate scenario was further investigated using ArcGIS10.1, suitable area under the climate change scenario was predicted. This research may provide useful references for cultivating Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge. Results showed that: There are five significant factors, annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature, annual temperature range,elevation and precipitation of driest quarter, determining the distribution of Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge;under the current climate scenario, the percentages of areas highly suitable, suitable, marginally suitable and unsuitable for Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge are 1.17%, 2.85%, 3.78% and 92.20% respectively;under all four climate-change scenarios, the areas of highly suitable and suitable will be expanding gradually.