基于AHP-Shapley值法的水利工程PPP项目收益分配研究

Study on income distribution of PPP projects in water conservancy projects based on AHP-Shapley value method

PPP项目涉及多方利益主体,对项目收益进行合理分配是准经营性水利工程PPP项目成功建设与运营的关键。综合考虑利益各方资源投入、风险分担和贡献水平等影响PPP项目收益分配的因素,建立了基于AHP-Shapley值法的合作博弈修正收益分配模型,并以我国第一批水利工程PPP试点项目中第一个开工建设的莽山水库工程PPP项目为例进行了收益分配分析计算和修正优化。优化后莽山水库PPP项目政府部门收益和PPP项目公司收益分别为0.304亿元和1.196亿元。根据PPP项目公司实际资源投入、风险分担和贡献水平,优化后其收益增加了0.186亿元。此分配模型使收益分配更趋合理,可为PPP项目的顺利实施创造良好的合作条件,有利于各参与方的积极合作,从而提高准经营性水利工程PPP项目的整体效益。

The PPP project involves multiple stakeholders. The reasonable distribution of project income is the key to the successful construction of the quasi-commercial water conservancy PPP project. Considering the factors affecting income distribution of PPP project, such as resource input, risk sharing and contribution level of stakeholders, a modified income distribution model of cooperative game based on AHP-Shapley value method is established. The income distribution analysis and correction are carried out with the Mangshan reservoir PPP project, which is one of the first batch of the water conservancy PPP pilot project in China. After optimization, the income of the government department and the project company of Mangshan reservoir PPP project is 0.304 billion yuan and 1.196 billion yuan respectively. According to the actual resource input, risk sharing and contribution level of the project company, the optimized income increases with 0.186 billion yuan. This distribution model makes the income distribution more reasonable and can create good cooperation conditions for the successful implementation of the PPP project, which is benefit for active cooperation of all participants, so as to improve the overall efficiency of the quasi-commercial water conservancy PPP project.