全球贸易摩擦对国际货币体系的影响

The Impact of Global Trade Frictions on International Monetary System

由于经常项目是美元对外输出的重要通道,美国通过贸易保护主义强行削减贸易逆差将带来全球美元流动性紧缩压力,其中受到美国贸易摩擦冲击越大的国家受到的影响越大。美元对外供给减少,虽有利于提升投资者对美元的信心,但也可能通过阻碍美元交易媒介和价值储藏职能的发挥使得美元国际货币地位受到负面影响。在美国实施贸易保护主义政策、全球金融环境日益收紧的情况下,储备需求国无论是通过继续维持对美国经常项目顺差,还是通过资本和金融项目顺差获得美元的难度都有所增大。为摆脱国际货币体系对一国国际收支逆差的依赖,需要对当前基于主权信用货币的国际货币体系进行变革,包括进一步促进国际货币体系多元化、推动超主权货币发展、完善全球金融安全网等。

Since current account is an important channel for the international supply of U.S. dollar, the U.S. administration^ forced reduction of the trade deficit through trade protectionism will bring about a tightening pressure on global dollar liquidity, and the countries that are more affected by the trade frictions will face more pressure. The decrease of the international supply will help to increase investor confidence in the U.S. dollar, but it may also pose negative impact on the U.S. dollar's international currency status by hindering its functions as a medium of exchange and store of value. With the implemen-tation of United States' protectionism trade policies and the increasingly tightening of the global financial conditions, it is more difficult for countries to obtain U.S. dollars by continuing to maintain current account surplus or capital and financial account surpluses with the United States. In order to get rid of the dependence of the international monetary system on a country's balance of payments deficit, it is necessary to reform the current international monetary system based on sovereign currency, including further promoting the currency diversification in the international monetary system, promoting the development of su-per-sovereign currency,and improving the global financial safety net.