孔子学院与来华留学生规模的实证研究——基于135个国家面板数据(1999-2015)

Confucius Institute and Its Impact on Foreign Students in China: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data from 135 Countries(1999-2015)

本文基于135个国家17年面板数据的双向固定效应模型的结果表明,孔子学院对奖学金项目留学生表现出积极的引力效应,平均每设立一所孔子学院,所在国来华留学生的数量増加1.5%。虽然从总体上看,孔子学院反倒减少了所在国来华留学生的总数量,但是这些替代效应主要体现在非学历项目和自费来华留学的学生上,在某种程度上可以理解为孔子学院改善了来华留学生的生源结构。进一步的分样本回归结果表明,孔子学院的影响存在着区域差异,在来华留学生的非主要生源国,孔子学院对于来华留学生规模的引力效应特别明显。因此,未来应该适当调整孔子学院的布局,在非洲、东欧等来华留学生人数较少的地区增设一批孔子学院,充分发挥其对于来华留学生的引力效应。

Using panel data of 135 countries over 17 years, we employ two -way fixed effects model and find that Confucius Institutes have helped to attract more foreign students to Chinese government scholarships. Each Confucius Institute increases the foreign students joining Chinese government scholarships by 1.5%. However, Confucius Institutes have led to a drop in the total number of foreign student studying in China, especially for those non -degree students. This substitution effect, means that the Confucius Institutes actually help China to improve the composition of its foreign students. Further heterogeneity analysis show that the substitution effect of Confucius Institutes is mainly caused by those main source countries in terms of foreign students. Therefore, China should establish more Confucius Institutes in Africa, Eastern European Countries in the future to maximize the catalyzing effect of Confucius Institutes.