农业转移人口市民化的经济效益研究——基于山东省CGE模型的实证分析

Research on the Economic Benefit of Citizenization of Agricultural Migrants: Empirical Analysis based on CGE Model of Shandong Province

利用CGE模型,基于社会核算矩阵分析山东省农业转移人口市民化过程中,支出/储蓄结构与城镇居民趋同、工资待遇公平化、地方政府公共服务均等化等对地区经济多方面的影响,可以发现:农业转移人口市民化能够带动地区国内生产总值增长2.81%,带动三次产业增加值分别提升2.96%、2.06%、3.75%,带动总资本使用量提升2.66%,带动地区税收收入增加3.96%,带动地区就业人数增加3.09%,带动地区农村、城镇居民收入分别增长10.45%、2.82%,带动全社会消费增长7.31%,对地区经济各维度具有广泛且明显的积极影响。

Based on the CGE model and the social accounting matrix, this study analyzes the process of the citizenization of agricultural migrants in Shandong province, and the multi-faceted influence on regional economy by the expenditure/savings stmcture and the convergence of urban residents, the fairness of wage and treatment, the equalization of local government public services. The study finds: The citizenization of agricultural migrants can lead to an increase of 2.81 % in the regional GDP;it can boost the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries by 2.96%, 2.06% and 3.75% respectively;the utilization of total capital by 2.66%;the tax revenue in the region by 3.96%;the rise of the number of employees by 3.09%;the rural and urban resident income by 10.45% and 2.82% respectively;the whole social actual consumption by 7.31%. The citizenization has exerted an extensive and obvious positive effect on the regional economy in all dimensions.