摘要
The probability volume method is a relatively ideal method for reserves evaluation. Taking the Upper Ordovician Wufeng Formation and the lower part of the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation in well block X of Fuling shale gas field for example, the authors established three—dimensional geological models of the work area by stochastic modeling technique, analyzed five categories of uncertain parameters which influence the shale gas reserves calculation result, and set three levels: pessimistic, possible and optimistic for each parameter. Furthermore, 18 groups of simulation programs were devised and calculated individually by the method of orthogonal experimental design, and the simulation results were analyzed with intuitive and variance analysis methods. Those uncertain parameters which influenced the shale gas reserves were quantitatively evaluated. Ultimately, the probability distribution of the shale gas reserves was gotten. This method reduces the experiment times and improves the evaluation efficiency.
