试析明仁天皇退位对日本社会的影响

The Impact of the Abdication of Emperor Akihito on the Japanese Politics and Economy

按日本政府的计划,明仁天皇将于2019年4月30日退位,翌日德仁皇太子即位为新天皇。此次日本皇位交替,对日本经济、政治、外交、社会的影响均与昭和天皇病逝退位之时有较大不同。经济上,退位改元会在短期内引起特需,促使关联产业发展,激活国内市场。政治上,安倍内阁与宫内厅最后确定的退位日程使安倍晋三领导的自民党有足够时间按部就班地处理各项政治课题,并可能凭借妥善处理天皇退位问题而获得民众支持其推动修宪进程。外交上,德仁皇太子即位之后,会接过"天皇外交"的接力棒,其高频度的亲善活动会成为日本政府改善国际关系的利器。

Emperor Akihito will abdicate on April 30,2019,when PrinceNaruhito will succeed him as the new Japanese emperor.It will be the first abdication of Japanese emperor since the Meiji Restoration,the impact of which on Japanese economy,politics,diplomacy,and society will be quite different from that of when Emperor Showa passed away in the late 1980 s.In economic terms,the abdication will create special domestic needs in the short term,promoting the prosperity of business and related industries.In Political terms,the schedule of abdication provides the LDP with sufficient time to deal with various political agendas,as well as an opportunity for gain more support for the revision of Japanese constitution by properly handling the issue of the abdication.In diplomatic terms,after the succession,Emperor Naruhito take over the responsibility of Japanese " emperor’s diplomacy",which will become an important asset for the Japanese government to improve its foreign relations.