中美关系新变化对朝鲜半岛未来发展的影响

The Impact of New Changes in Sino-U.S.Relations on the Future Development of the Korean Peninsula

近来,中美关系出现了一些备受瞩目的新变化。这些变化主要表现在中美贸易摩擦不断升级和军事上战略矛盾加剧。尽管中美在许多全球性和区域性重大问题上具有共同利益,存在广泛合作基础,但目前中美关系存在由"非敌非友利益相关"向"冲突对抗和利益相背"发展的现实危险。中美关系的新变化也将在一定程度上对朝鲜半岛未来发展产生影响。展望未来,和平、合作与和解将是朝鲜半岛发展的大趋势。中美关系新变化将有利于缓解美国主导的对朝鲜制裁极限施压和进一步促进中朝关系改善,有利于朝鲜经济发展。但对于中韩关系发展则可能会产生一定负面影响,主要表现在中韩安保问题上的不确定性增加。尽管中美关系发生了一些新变化,但中国对朝鲜半岛政策并没有发生重大改变。

Recently there have been some remarkable changes in Sino-U.S. relations,represented in the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade frictions and the intensification of military strategic conflicts.The relations between China and U.S.is shifting from a non-enemy,non-friend and interest-linked pattern to a conflictual,confrontational pattern with contradiction over interests.New changes in Sino-U.S. relations will also have a certain impact on the situation of the Korean Peninsula.Peace,cooperation and reconciliation will become the main trend for the development of the situation of Korean peninsula.New changes in Sino-U.S. relations will contribute to the relaxation of pressure of U.S.-led sanctions against DPRK,the improvement of China-DPRK relations and economic recovery of DPRK.However,those changes will also have some negative effects on the development of China-ROK relations,mainly shown by the growing uncertainty of security issue between China and ROK.In spite of new changes in Sino-U.S. relations,China’s overall policy towards the Korean Peninsula has not changed significantly.