中东剧变下的库尔德问题:内涵构成、现实影响与未来走向

Kurdish Issue after the Upheaval in Middle East:Connotation,Realistic Influence and Trend in the Future

库尔德问题由来已久,它是世界秩序重组、地区格局新构时列强国家肢解瓜分奥斯曼帝国的强权政治产物。中东剧变前,库尔德问题兼具内政问题与国际问题的双重性质,是中东政治格局中的重要变量,库尔德人文化上具有一致性、政治上处于分离状态。中东剧变对库尔德问题产生了重要影响,库尔德人的国际合作和支持增加,政治地位提高,生存环境改善,民族意识强化。基于伊拉克公投、土耳其出兵阿夫林事件及相关国家态度预测,库尔德人实现独立建国的可能性依旧较小。作为跨界民族的库尔德人,未来的主要诉求将转变为获取平等的民族权利。解决库尔德问题的重点在于相关国家如何协调库尔德人的合法诉求与国家权力的关系。

The Kurdish issue has a long history and is resulted from the great power politics who dismembered and divided the Ottoman empire when the world order was reorganized and the regional pattern was renewed.Before the upheaval of the Middle East,the Kurdish issue was an important variable in the Middle East political pattern with a dual nature of internal affairs and international issues and it was culturally consistent and politically separate.The upheaval in the Middle East has had an important impact on the Kurdish issue.For example,the international cooperation and support of the Kurds have increased,their political status and their living environment have improved,and their national awareness has strengthened.On the basis of the Iraqi referendum,the Turkish invasion of Afrin and the attitude of the relevant countries,it is indicated that the probability of Kurdish to realize independence is still small.Kurds as cross-borderethnic groups,the main demand of the future will be to gain equal national rights.The focus of solution to the Kurdish issue is how the relevant countries coordinate the relationship between the legitimate aspirations of the Kurds and the state power.