中国水足迹驱动因素空间异质性分析

Spatial heterogeneity analysis of impact factors about China's water footprint

通过构建水足迹变化的STIPAT模型,定量分析2002—2014年人口、人均GDP及万元产值水足迹对水足迹变化的影响,并通过地理加权回归分析2014年这3类驱动因素的空间溢出效应。结果表明,从时间上看,水足迹与水足迹强度呈现出反比例关系,即水足迹强度随着水足迹的递增而降低;人口、人均GDP水足迹变化的影响程度最大,起到正向驱动作用,而万元产值水足迹的影响力最小,但其却对水足迹起到抑制作用。从空间上看,各省水足迹总量受人口、人均GDP、万元产值水足迹的影响,其空间分布呈现出明显的不同。

Through establishing the STIRPAT model of water footprint changes,the impact of population,GDP per capita,and ten thousand yuan of water footprint changes from 2002 to 2014 was quantitatively analyzed,and the spatial spillover effects of these three types of drivers in 2014 were analyzed by geographically weighted regression.The results showed that from a time point of view,the water footprint and the water footprint intensity showed inversely proportional relationship,that was,the water footprint intensity decreased with increasing water footprint;Population,GDP per capita had the greatest impact on the water footprint changes,which played a positive effect while the ten thousand yuan of water footprint had least impact,but it had an inhibitory effect on the water footprint.From the spatial point of view,each administrative district was affected by the population,GDP per capita and ten thousand yuan of water footprint effects,and the spatial distribution of water footprints showed significant differences.