横风横浪中破损船舶瘫船稳性倾覆概率研究

Research on Capsizing Probability of Damaged Ship with Dead Ship Stability Failure in Beam Wind and Waves

为了评估船首破损以后的倾覆概率,基于完整船舶瘫船稳性研究,尝试将破损船舶时域进水过程和倾覆概率计算结合。用Monte Carlo方法数值模拟某船破损以后的倾覆概率,采用四阶Runge-kutta方法求解横摇运动方程,研究不同载况下的倾覆概率和稳性高度变化。计算结果表明:相比完整船舶,破损船舶的短期和长期倾覆概率都增大;而在进水过程中,破损船舶的倾覆概率先减小后增大,到进水终了时刻达到最大。研究成果可望为破损船舶瘫船状态下的倾覆机理和波浪中破舱稳性衡准的制定提供技术支持。

With the development of the second generation of intact stability criteria by The International Maritime Organization (IMO), it is imperative to establish damage stability criteria in the future. Dead ship stability failure is one of the five failure modes, and evaluation of capsizing probability for a damaged ship with this stability failure is difficult. This paper attempts to combine the flooding process in the time domain with the investigation of capsizing. In the simulation of a damage warship, the Monte Carlo method is applied, while Runge-Kutta method is applied in solving the roll motion equation. It is indicated that the short-term and long-term capsizing probability of a damage warship will be greater than that of the intact one, and maximal probability of capsizing appears at the end of the flooding process, which may provide technical support for study of capsizing mechanism under dead ship condition and establishment of damage stability criteria in waves.