国际油价冲击对中国基本金属价格的影响研究——基于油价冲击分解视角

Research on the Impact of International Oil Price Shocks on China Base Metal Price——Based on the Perspective of Oil Price Shocks Decomposition

以2004年1月～2017年12月中国基本金属市场中铜和铝的月度价格数据为样本,基于结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),将国际油价冲击分解为原油供给冲击、经济总需求冲击及原油特定需求冲击,研究了三种不同来源的结构性油价冲击对中国基本金属价格的影响。结果表明,原油供给冲击对国内基本金属市场中铜和铝的价格没有显著影响,而经济总需求冲击与原油特定需求冲击对铜和铝的价格具有显著正向影响,且铜受到的影响大于铝受到的影响。因此,决策者在面对油价冲击和波动时,要充分认识到油价冲击的来源,采取有针对性的措施。

With the monthly price data of copper and aluminum in China base metal market from 2004.1 to 2017.12 as samples,this paper decomposes international oil price shocks into oil supply shock,aggregate demand shock and oil-specific demand shock based on SVAR,to study the impact of structural oil price shocks with three different kinds of causes on China base metal price.The results reveal that the oil supply shock has no obvious impact on copper and aluminum price in domestic base metal market,but the aggregate demand shock and oil-specific demand shock have significantly positive impact on copper and aluminum price,and the impact on copper is stronger than that of aluminum.Thus,when facing the oil price shocks and fluctuations,the decision makers should fully recognize the causes of oil price shocks and take specific countermeasures.