房价、收入与住房负担能力关系实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship among House Price, Income and Housing Affordability

基于河北省1995年～2017年相关数据,构建VAR模型实证分析了收入、房价与住房负担能力之间的相互关系。研究结果发现,城镇居民住房负担能力逐年下降,房价与住房负担能力存在单向Granger因果关系,与收入之间存在双向Granger因果关系;给定房价一个正的标准差冲击,对自身将产生明显的正向影响,对住房负担能力有明显的负向影响;给定住房负担能力一个正的标准差冲击,对房价有明显的正向影响;收入的变动对房价收入比没有显著影响。可以通过采取措施稳定房价,加大力度抑制住房的投资需求,构建全面的住房保障体系等措施提高居民住房负担能力,实现"住有所居"的目标。

Based on the relevant data of Hebei Province from 1995 to 2017,this paper establishes VAR model to empirically analyze the relationship among income,house price and housing affordability.The results reveal that the urban resident housing affordability is decreased by year,the house price has single directional Granger causality with housing affordability,and it has double directional Granger causality with income;giving one positive standard deviation shock to house price will produce obvious positive impact on itself and obvious negative impact on the housing affordability;giving one standard deviation shock to housing affordability will produce obvious positive impact on the house price;the income change has no significant impact on house price income ratio.We can stabilizer the house price by measures,strengthen suppressing the investment demand in real estate,build comprehensive housing protection system to improve the resident housing affordability,and realize the target of"everyone has his house to live".