“有效银行监管核心原则”的实施与银行风险承担——基于法系特征与经济发展的跨国实证

The Compliance Enforcement of BCPs and Bank Risk-taking——A Cross Country Comparative Analysis Based on Legal System and Economic Development

国际货币基金组织和世界银行的全球评估报告显示,各成员方对巴塞尔《有效银行监管核心原则》(Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision,BCPs)的实施程度存在很大差异。本研究关注的重点是,造成这种差异的主要因素是什么,各成员方对BCPs实施程度的差异对该经济体银行业风险承担的行为和结果会带来什么影响,以及其背后的机理。本研究以全球48个经济体共计11438家银行2010—2017年的数据为样本,分别从法系特征和经济发展水平两个维度,运用ANCOVA协方差分析模型对上述问题进行实证研究。研究结果表明:各经济体对BCPs实施程度的差异主要取决于当地的经济发展水平,而非法系特征;从各经济体银行业监管水平的判断标准来看,并非对监管规则的实施程度越高越好,而应结合各经济体承受监管成本的能力综合分析;从BCPs实施程度会改变银行业风险承担行为的作用机制来看,规模相对较大的银行能承受更高的监管成本,因而能更有效地抵消加强监管带来的负面作用。鉴于此,我国金融监管当局应科学地看待银行业对BCPs的实施程度,不仅要考虑我国目前经济发展总体水平较高但区域经济发展水平差距大对实施BCPs效果的影响,还要认真分析不同规模和特质性银行对风控成本的承受能力。

The International Monetary Fund(IMF) and the World Bank’s global inspection and evaluation reports show that the degree of compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision(BCPs) differs greatly among their members. In this study we mainly concern about the causes of these differences, its impact on the banking industries and the mechanism behind it. Using the data of 11,438 banks in 48 economic entities from 2010 to 2017, we study these problems empirically with the help of an ANCOVA covariance analysis model from perspectives of legal system and economic development. The results show that the differences of BCPs compliance in different economic entities mainly come from the economic development rather than the legal system and that more strict compliance does not come with better results. Instead, we find that there is an optimal level of compliance balancing between costs and benefits. Larger banks can afford higher regulatory costs and therefore can offset more effectively the negative impacts of more strict regulations. The implication of our study is that China’s regulatory authorities should view the compliance of BCPs more scientifically, taking into account of the factor of economic development and economic inequality on the effects of the compliance of BCPs as well as analyzing the impacts of sizes and ownership of banks on their risk-taking capacity.