“一带一路”沿线国家金融-经济关联异质性及其金融体制比较研究

Study of Financial Development Heterogeneity of “Belt and Road” Countries and Comparative Analysis of Their Financial System

围绕"一带一路"沿线国家的"金融-经济"动态关联异质性以及金融体制差异,应用面板VAR与VECM模型,从整体和国别两个层面实证分析"一带一路"沿线国家金融发展与经济增长的动态关联关系;应用面板和截面门槛模型,跨国比较"一带一路"沿线国家金融发展门槛经济效应的异质性特征;分析比较"一带一路"沿线国家间所突出存在的金融体制差异及其形成的金融合作障碍。研究发现:金融发展的经济增长效应显著存在着国别差异,"金融-经济"动态及非线性关联的背后是金融体制的深层影响与制约,金融体制的差异既是"一带一路"合作框架的潜在机会,也是深入金融合作的现实困难与障碍。

Along the"Belt and Road" Initiative countries, what are the heterogeneity of their "Finance- Economy" dynamic relationship and financial system difference? The paper applies panel VAR and ECM models to analyze the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth of the "Belt and Road" countries from two aspects of "whole" and "individual". Applying panel and cross-section threshold models, the paper compares the heterogeneity of the threshold economic effects of financial development of the "Belt and Road" countries. In terms of the underlying causes, the paper also analyzes and compares the differences in financial system between the "Belt and Road" countries and the financial cooperation obstacles. The study finds that the economic growth effect of financial development is significantly different among the "Belt and Road" countries. Underlying the dynamic and nonlinear correlation of "Finance-Growth" is the deep influence and restriction of financial system. The difference of financial system is not only potential opportunities for the "Belt and Road" cooperation framework, but also reality difficulties and obstacles to further financial cooperation.