改革开放以来科技创新、城镇化与碳排放

Urbanization,Technological Innovation and Carbon Emission Since the Reform and Opening Up

本文从理论分析出发,梳理了改革开放以来科技创新、城镇化与碳排放三者之间的影响机理,并基于2005—2015年省际数据构建了面板门槛回归模型,实证分析了科技创新环境下城镇化水平对碳排放效应的阶段性差异。研究表明,城镇化对碳排放的影响具有双重门槛效应,当城镇化水平较低时,提高城镇化水平有利于实现低碳发展,而科技创新的发展也有利于抑制碳排放效应;但当城镇化水平越过第二个门槛值对应的水平时,城镇化水平的提高将促进碳排放效应。以上研究为中国坚持走生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明发展道路提供了政策启示。

On the basis of the theoretical analysis,this paper reviews the relationship among S&T innovation,urbanization and carbon emission since the reform and opening up,and builds a panel threshold regressive model by using inter-provincial data from 2005 to 2015 to empirically analyze the stage effect of urbanization on carbon emission in the context of technological innovation.The research shows that the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a Double threshold effect.When the urbanization level is low,raising the urbanization level is conducive to achieving low-carbon development,and the development of science and technology innovation will help to curb the carbon emission effect.However,when the urbanization level crosses the threshold corresponding to the second threshold,the improvement of urbanization level will raise the level of carbon emission in China.Based on the above findings,this paper provides some policy enlightenments for China to stick to the path of civilized development with production and development,affluent life and good ecology.