制造业绿色竞争力评价与预测——以江苏省为例

Evaluation and Prediction of Green Competitiveness of Manufacturing Industry: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

为了研究绿色科技应用是否存在短期滞后性,本文进行文献梳理,建立了包含经济、科技、社会和生态方面指标的绿色竞争力评价体系,以江苏为案例,采用离差最大化法测算评价值、灰色关联改变点法将时间序列分三阶段:1998—2003年,2004—2009年和2010—2016年,以分段评价制造业及细分行业的发展状况。分析发现,政策频繁发布与绿色科技成果初现阶段,江苏制造业绿色竞争力评价值增长率在短期内呈现明显下降趋势,绿色科技政策与成果存在短期滞后效应,从长期看绿色科技依然会提升制造业绿色竞争力;生态保护力评价值欠佳;传统重点行业应对环境规制的速度较慢,在绿色科技上投入成本后回报速度较慢;通过GM (1,1)模型预测发现江苏制造业竞争力评价值年增长率持续下降,短时期内不会迎来新的增长拐点,江苏制造业为增强长期竞争力需寻求新的绿色增长点。

In order to study whether there is a short-term lag in the application of green technology,this paper establishes a green competitiveness evaluation system including economic,scientific and technological,social and ecological indicators based on literature review.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,the time series is divided into three stages:1998-2003,2004-2009,and 2010-2016 by using the deviation maximization method to calculate the evaluation value and the grey relational change point method to evaluate the development of manufacturing and sub-industries.In the early stages of frequent policy and green technological achievements,the growth rate of evaluation value of green competitiveness of manufacturing industry in Jiangsu shows a significant downward trend.Green technology policy and achievements have a short-term lag effect,and green technology will still enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing industry in the long run.The evaluation value of ecological protection is not good.Traditional key industries are slow to cope with environmental regulation and slow to return after investing in green technology.The GM (1,1) model predicts that the annual growth rate of Jiangsu s manufacturing competitiveness will continue to decline.There will be no new growth inflection point in the short term,and manufacturing industry needs to seek new green growth points to enhance its long-term competitiveness.