广东内伶仃岛猕猴种群动态及种群生存力分析

Population Dynamic and Viability Analysis of Rhesus Macaque (Macaca mulatta) in Neilingding Nature Reserve,Guangdong Province

2014—2016年采用定点法对广东内伶仃岛的猕猴种群数量及分布进行了调查,并通过查阅历史资料和相关文献,分析了猕猴近30年间在内伶仃岛的分布格局变化。结果显示,得益于保护区所采取的保护措施,目前内伶仃岛约有猕猴24群,种群数量在1 000只左右,根据种群连续3年的数据,参照种群现状、配偶体制、迁移扩散、环境容纳量、死亡率等种群参数,利用旋涡模型(VORTEX 10),对猴群未来100年内的数量动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明,在理想情况下,猕猴种群100年间灭绝概率为0%,内禀增长率r=0. 024,周期增长率λ=1. 047,净生殖率R0=1. 552,雌体的平均世代时间T=7. 55,雄体的平均世代时间T=6. 74。此外,通过对因子敏感度分析发现,影响猕猴种群增长的因子主要是近交衰退、环境容纳量及个体死亡率。在研究的基础上提出了相关的保护和管理建议。

We investigated the population size and distribution of rhesus macaque(Macaca mulatta)by fixed-point count method at Neilingding Nature Reserve(NLD),an island of Guangdong Province during 2014 to 2016.We analyzed the distribution pattern of rhesus macaque over the last 30 years by reviewing historical data and literature.We identified 24 groups of macaques on NLD,with a total population size of about 1 000 individuals.We use Vortex model(VORTEX 10)to analyzed the population dynamic over 100 years based on the data of 2014 to 2016,and parameters including population status,mating system,relocation and diffusion,environmental capacity,and death rate.We estimated a probability of extinction of 0 in 100 years,an innate rate of increase of r=0.024,an instantaneous rate of increase asλ=1.047,net reproduction rate of R 0=1.552,average generation time of females T=7.55 years,and average generation time of males T=6.74.By sensitivity analysis,we found that inbreeding depression,environmental capacity,and individual mortality rate were the main factors influencing population growth.The population benefited from effective protection strategies implemented by park managers and should be enhanced through strengthened scientific management,habitat management,strengthened environmental protection education and community co-management.