基于历史测量数据的高压电缆导体温度预测

High Voltage Cable Conductor Temperature Prediction Based on Historical Measured Data

为了给高压电缆动态增容的实现提供理论支持,提出一种基于历史测量数据的高压电缆导体温度预测算法。在传热学理论的基础上,构建高压电缆导体温度预测计算热路模型,并基于历史实测数据实现对热路模型中环境等效热参数的计算。为验证预测算法的精确度,设计高压电缆的暂态温升实验。预测算法计算结果和实验结果对比表明,在电缆的温升过程中,预测算法的计算误差呈现先增长后下降的变化趋势,计算误差最大值不超过4.2℃,且在导体温度接近稳态时,预测算法计算结果和实测结果相差小于1.1℃,两者吻合很好。研究表明:相比于基于IEC推荐的电缆暂态热路模型的高压电缆导体温度预测算法,基于历史测量数据的高压电缆导体温度预测算法具有更高的预测精度。

To provide theoretical support for dynamic capacity increase of the high voltage cable,this paper proposes a kind of prediction algorithm for cable conductor temperature based on historical measured data.On the basis of heat transmission theory,it establishes a calculation thermal circuit model and makes calculation of equivalent heat parameter of the environment in the thermal circuit model based on historical measured data.To verify precision of the prediction algorithm,it designs transient temperature rise experiment for the high voltage cable.Comparison between results of the prediction algorithm and the experiment indicates in the process of temperature rise of the cable,calculation error of the algorithm shows a variation trend of first increasing and then decreasing and the maximum value of calculation error is less than 4.2 ℃.Meanwhile,as conductor temperature is close to steady state,discrepancy between the prediction result and the measured result is less than 1.1 ℃,which means good agreement.The research indicates that compared with the prediction algorithm for high voltage cable conductor temperature based on IEC cable transient thermal circuit model,this prediction algorithm based on historical measured data has higher prediction precision.