老龄化、经济发展、教育与房价——基于似不相关回归方法的实证分析

Aging, Economic Development, Education and Housing Prices——Empirical Analysis Based on Similar Uncorrelated Regression Method

通过实证分析2002—2016年我国30个省份(西藏除外)的面板数据,探讨老龄化、与房价的关系,并引入地区GDP、地区教育状况等因素,通过构建似不相关回归模型,探索老年抚养比、GDP、教育水平等宏观因素对住宅商品房价格的影响程度。得出了四个重要结论:①地区生产总值与房价逆向相关,说明近年来我国住房价格的增长确实过快,畸形发展。过高的房价不利于我国整体经济的发展;②目前阶段来看老龄化现象助推了房价上涨;③教育水平的提高对抑制房价具有正向促进作用;④地方财政房产税收入与房价正相关。最后给出了相关的政策建议。

Through empirical analysis of the panel data of 30 provinces(except Tibet)in China from 2002 to 2016,to explore the relationship between aging and housing prices,and to introduce regional GDP,regional education and other factors,through the construction of a seemingly irrelevant regression model,explore The degree of influence of macro factors such as old-age dependency ratio,GDP,and education level on the price of residential commercial housing.Four important conclusions were drawn:①The regional GDP is inversely related to house prices,indicating that the growth of housing prices in China has indeed been too fast and deformed in recent years.Excessive housing prices are not conducive to the development of China's overall economy;②at this stage,the phenomenon of aging has boosted housing prices;③the improvement of education level has positively promoted the suppression of housing prices;④local fiscal property tax revenue is positively correlated with housing prices..Finally,relevant policy recommendations are given.