国家每千人口护理人力资源预测

Prediction on Nursing Human Resources of Per Thousand People in the Country

目的通过对每千人口护理人员现状分析和预测研究,探讨存在的问题,并提出对策。方法基于2012—2017年国家卫生统计年鉴提供的数据,利用Matlab软件建立Verhulst模型。结果国家每千人护理人员模型为■;城市每千人护理人员模型为■;农村每千人护理人员模型为■。预测2017—2020年国家每千人护理人员值分别为2.69、2.82、2.94和3.05人,城市每千人护理人员值分别为5.18、5.42、5.64和5.83人,农村每千人护理人员值分别为1.56、1.63、1.68和1.73人。结论加大投入,提高护理人员待遇和心理收入;增加人员编制,减少工作负荷;重视教育,提高人员岗位胜任力;平衡发展,建立东西部人员交流机制。

Objective To explore the existing problems and put forward countermeasures and suggestions through analyzing and forecasting the current situation of nurses in per thousand people.Methods Based on the data provided by the 2012-2017 yearbook of national health statistics,the Verhulst model was established by using Matlab software.Results The model for every thousand people in the country was Y ( x )= 1 0.274996+0.327414e -0.202502(x-1),C=0.025,P=1.000,the model for every thousand people in the city was Y (x)= 1 0.144794+0.159157e -0.198396(x-1),C=0.038,P=1.000,and the model for every thousand people in the rural was Y(x)= 1 0.519548+0.50086e -0.0238249(x-1),C=0.055,P=1.000.It was predicted that the values of nursing staff per 1000 people in 2017-2020 years were 2.69,2.82,2.94 and 3.05 respectively.The values of each thousand people in the city were 5.18,5.42,5.64 and 5.83,respectively,and the values of each thousand people in the countryside were 1.56,1.63,1.68 and 1.73.Conclusion We should increase investment to improve the treat?ment and psychological income of the nursing staff;enlarge the size of personnel to reduce the workload;pay atten?tion to education to improve the competency of the staff,and balance the development to establish the communica?tion mechanism between the East and the West.