我国金融体系与宏观经济的关联性理论分析

Analysis on the Relationship between China's Financial System and Macro-economy

预测宏观经济动态趋势是金融体系与宏观经济的重要课题。鉴于此,在基于研究宏观经济预测理论文献的基础上,总结梳理了国内外学者对宏观经济预测的理论基础和方法,基于我国2006-2016年金融稳定指数、金融压力指数对宏观经济的影响展开调查,分析了金融体系与宏观经济的关联性。研究成果表明,金融体系中稳定性和压力状况,能够对我国宏观经济发展有较好的预测能力。最后,面对当前国际经济贸易秩序出现的困难形势以及外部输入性风险不断上升情况下,在对我国宏观经济发展预测基础上,提出实行积极有效的财政政策、稳健的货币政策要松紧适度、强化经济工作中的底线思维、更好地把握我国经济新常态特点等政策建议,以期更好地指导金融体系和宏观经济在国民经济中运行,也将有利于推行和开展经济学实证领域的实践或研究探索。

Predicting the dynamic trend of macro-economy is a significant subject of financial system and macro-economy. Therefore, on the basis of studying the theoretical literature of macroeconomic forecasting, the theoretical basis and methods of macroeconomic forecasting are summarized and combined in the paper based on domestic and foreign scholars, while the impacts of China's financial stability index and financial pressure index on macro-economy are investigated from 2006 to 2016, and the relationship between financial system and macro-economy is reflected and analyzed. The research results show that the stability and pressure in the financial system can predict the macroeconomic development of nations. Finally, according to the current difficult situation of the international economic, trade order and the rising external import risks, on the basis of the macroeconomic forecast and development, several aspects of the economy are put forward, such as the implementation of active and effective fiscal policy, the moderate tightening of sound monetary policy, the strengthening of the bottom line thinking in economic work, and the better grasp of the characteristics of the new normal state of our economy. Development policy recommendations, in order to better guide the financial system and macroeconomic operation in the national economy, will also be conducive to the implementation and development of practical economic, and be advantageous to something about research as well as exploration.