环境规制对中国制造业结构优化的影响——技术创新的中介效应

The Effect of Environmental Regulation on China's Manufacturing Structure Optimization——An Empirical Research Based on the Mediating Effect of Technological Innovation

采用2005-2016年中国内地30个省市面板数据,综合运用系统GMM模型和固定效应模型,探讨正式、非正式环境规制对制造业结构优化的影响。从直接影响看,正式环境规制能促进制造业结构高级化但未促进合理化,而非正式环境规制对制造业结构合理化和高级化均产生促进作用。进一步以技术创新为中介变量的分析发现,两种环境规制均能通过技术创新的中介效应对制造业结构合理化和高级化产生正向影响,但对制造业结构高级化的影响存在区域差异性:正式环境规制对东部地区制造业结构高级化产生显著正向影响,对中部、东北地区无显著影响,对西部地区产生显著负向影响;非正式环境规制对中部、西部地区制造业结构高级化产生显著正向影响,对东部、东北地区无显著影响。最后,基于实证结果,从两种环境规制互补、环境规制与技术创新互动、区域差异化环境规制等角度,就如何实施环境规制、倒逼制造业结构优化提出若干建议。

This paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2016, and comprehensively applies the system GMM model and fixed effect model to explore the effect of formal and informal environmental regulations on the optimization of manufacturing structure. From the perspective of direct influence, formal environmental regulation can promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure but can not promote its rationalization, and informal environmental regulation can promote both the rationalization and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. From the further analysis of using technological innovation as the mediating variable, both formal environmental regulation and informal environmental regulation can positively affect the rationalization and the upgrading of manufacturing structure through the mediating effect of technological innovation, but there are regional differences in the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing structure: formal environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the eastern region, has no significant impact in the central and northeastern regions, and has a significant negative impact in the western region;informal environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the central and western regions and has no significant impact in the eastern and northeastern regions. Finally, based on the empirical results, from the perspectives of the complementary between the two environmental regulations, the interactivity between environmental regulation and technological innovation, and different regional differentiation regulations, some countermeasures on how to implement more effective environmental regulation to force manufacturing structure optimization are proposed.