迎风前行:2019年温州工业经济运行分析与展望

Powering ahead against Odds: Analysis and Prospect of Wenzhou's Industrial Economy in 2019

2018年温州工业经济运行总体态势可概括为"稳中有缓,缓中有忧",其核心逻辑则是"缩量提质"。工业经济可能已悄然迈入"后去产能"阶段。在过去两年中,推动工业经济增速的有效支撑力量未能真正形成,未来工业经济运行的可持续性与稳定性堪虞。年内偏弱的需求替代此前库存的去补轮动,成为左右产能节奏调整的主导逻辑。产业新旧动能逐步接续,结构调整有所"粘滞";工业企业收入成本双降延续,利润增速"降中有稳"。跨越"后去产能"阶段解法在于代表高质量增量的产业新动能的崛起。2019年产业政策着力的重点领域和理念定位已清晰,聚焦于发现与培育工业经济增量新动能,尽快形成和巩固支撑制造业高质量产能培育的地方系列政策框架,落实制造业中小企业结构性宽松和减税减负托底提振政策,催化投资投放加速,打破目前增量投资僵局。

The general condition of Wenzhou’s industrial economy in 2018 can be summarized as “stability with proper slowing down, slowing down with sense of crisis” with the core notion being “decrease of quantity and increase of quality”. Industrial economy has probably stepped into the “post-de-overcapacity” phase peacefully. Sustainability and stability of future industrial economy is under question as the supporting force to promote industrial economy growth is yet to be shaped during the past two years. Alternative of relatively weak yearly demand to rotation against replenishment serves to guide the capacity adjustment. There is continuation of new and old industrial drive and viscosity of structural adjustment. Decrease of income and cost of industrial enterprises continues. Growing pace of profit slows down with stability. The approach for“post-de-overcapacity” phase is the rise of new kinetic energy of industry representing high incremental quality. The core field and guiding notion of industrial policy in 2019 should be focused on exploring and developing new kinetic energy for industrial increment, a series of local policy making and consolidating to support the development of high quality manufacturing, implementing the policy of structural loosening and tax reduction to boost from the bottom of manufacturing SME, promoting the acceleration of investment and supply and breaking the bottleneck of current incremental investment.