中国陆海统筹绩效时空分异及影响因素——基于脆弱性视角的分析

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of China’s Land-sea Coordination Performance and Influencing Factors: Based on Vulnerability Perspective

基于脆弱性视角,从敏感性和应对性两方面构建评价指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS模型测度1996—2015年中国陆海统筹绩效,结合核密度估计、多元线性回归和障碍度模型揭示其演化的时空分异及影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国陆海统筹绩效整体呈缓慢提升态势,两极分化趋势减弱,区域差距逐渐缩小。(2)空间演化上,陆海统筹绩效低值区空间范围不断缩小,中高值区空间范围不断扩大。其中,辽宁、河北、浙江、江苏、广西呈向好发展趋势,天津、山东、广东、上海呈减缓发展趋势,福建、海南呈波动变化。(3)回归分析表明,应对性对陆海统筹绩效的影响发挥主导作用,陆海经济协调发展度、陆海第二产业及第三产业贡献率、涉海就业结构专业化指数、科研经费投入力度、高层次人才储备率是制约其应对能力提升的主要障碍因子。

Based on the perspective of vulnerability, the paper constructed the performance evaluation index system from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity. The entropy-TOPSIS model was used to evaluate the performance of land-sea coordination from 1996 to 2015, while the kernel density estimation was used to reveal its temporal and spatial differentiation. And the multiple linear regression and obstacle model was used to explore the key factors affecting the performance of land-sea coordination. The results show that:(1)China’s land-sea performance shows a slow increase. The polarization trend of land-sea coordination performance of China’s coastal areas shows weakened, and the regional differences significantly reduce.(2)The low-level performance of land-sea coordination regional space are gradually narrow, the intermediate performance area gradually expand. Among them, the land-sea coordination performance in Liaoning, Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangxi shows a good development trend.The trend in Tianjin, Shandong, Guangdong, Shanghai is slowing down, and the performance in Fujian, Hainan is volatile change.(3)The regression analysis indicates that the impact of response capacity on the overall performance of land-sea coordination plays a leading role. The coordinated development of land-sea economy, the land-sea second and tertiary industry contribution rate, the professional structure of the sea-related employment, research funding and high-level talent reserve rate are the main obstacle factors.