东北老工业基地振兴的绩效评估——基于合成控制法的检验

Performance Evaluation of Revitalization of Northeast Old Industrial Base: Empirical Test Based on Synthetic Control Method

为避免双重差分法所存在的地区异质性估计偏差,基于结构视角通过合成控制法对东北振兴政策进行评估,找出东北经济下滑的内在动因,为破解东北经济增长难题提供政策建议。结果表明:东北振兴政策整体上对经济增长具有促进作用,东北经济下行的根本症结在于结构的扭曲与错位。从短期看,经济结构的暂时性优化促使振兴政策对经济发展具有较强的推动作用;而从长期看,政策效果并不明显,这是由于结构障碍的日益凸显阻碍了振兴政策效应的释放。因此,实现东北振兴必须依赖于经济结构的优化和升级。

In order to find out the internal motivation of the economic decline in Northeast China and provide policy suggestions for solving the problems of economic growth in Northeast China, the study uses the synthetic control method, which avoids the regional heterogeneity estimation bias in the difference in difference method, in order to make an empirical evaluation of the northeast revitalization policy based on the structural perspective. The study finds that the revitalization policy as a whole has a positive effect on economic growth. The fundamental crux of the economic downturn in the Northeast is the distortion and dislocation of the structure. In the short term, the temporary optimization of the economic structure has prompted the revitalization policy to have a strong impetus for economic development. In the long run, the effect of the policy is not obvious. This is due to the fact that structural obstacles have increasingly hampered the release of the revitalizing policy effect. Therefore, achieving Northeast revitalization depends on the optimization and upgrading of economic structure.