基于行为意愿与反转信息可靠性的舆论反转演变研究

The Research on Reverse Evolution of Public Opinion Based on Behavioral Intention and Reliability of Reverse Information

[目的/意义]舆论反转是舆论衍变的特殊过程。通过分析舆论发生反转的演变条件,有助于提高舆论治理效果。[方法/过程]借鉴Weisbuch-Deffuant模型,引入群体极化的网民行为意愿因素和反转信息可靠程度两个变量,构建Weisbuch-Deffuant-Reversal舆论反转模型。对实验模型中的关键变量对舆论反转的演变过程影响进行分析。[结果/结论]研究发现,在WD-R模型中,μ=0.5时,网民反转观点演化速度更快,系统趋于稳定的速度也更快。网民行为意愿会对网络舆论反转观点聚合产生影响。随着意愿值的逐渐增大,反转舆论形成统一观点所用时间逐渐减小。行为意愿服从均值为0.5的正态分布要比服从随机均匀分布的反转观点演化速度更迅速。反转信息的可靠程度有助于反转观点的收敛。当反转信息的可靠程度越大时,网民产生的反转舆论观点越趋向于客观观点。

[Purpose/Significance]The reversal of public opinion is a special process in the evolution of public opinion. It is helpful for improving the effect of public opinion governance to analyze the evolution conditions of public opinion reversal.[Method/Process]Based on the Weisbuch-Deffuant model, the Weisbuch-Deffuant-Reversal(WD-R)model is constructed by introducing two variables: the netizens’ behavioral intention factor of group polarization and the reliability of reverse information. The effects of key variables in the experimental model on the evolution of the reversal of public opinion are analyzed.[Result/Conclusion]The study showed that in the WD-R model, when taking μ=0.5, netizens will change their views more quickly and the system tends to stabilize faster. The behavioral intention will have an impact on the convergence of the reversal of public opinion. With the increase of behavior intention, the time taken for reverse public opinion to form a unified opinion is gradually reduced. The behavioral intention adopting a normal distribution with an average value of 0.5 will make reversed opinions evolve more rapidly than obeying a random uniform distribution. The reliability of the reverse information might help the convergence of the reverse views. When the reliability of the reverse information is greater, the reverse opinions generated by netizens tend to be more objective.