政府规模和法治水平有助于提升服务贸易发展水平吗——来自G20国家面板数据分析

DOES THE SIZE OF GOVERNMENT AND THE RULE OF LAW CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING THE LEVEL OF SERVICE TRADE DEVELOPMENT: ANALYSIS BASED ON PANEL DATA OF G20 COUNTRIES

本文构建政府规模和法治水平影响服务贸易发展的一般性分析框架,结合G20国家的面板数据,实证检验了政府规模、法治水平与服务贸易发展之间的关系,并对实证结果进行稳健性检验。研究发现:政府规模在促进服务贸易发展上存在明显双路径传递效应,即政府规模通过两种不同渠道影响服务贸易发展;法治水平显著抑制服务贸易发展,其可能原因是法治水平作为经济发展的制度要素,也存在边际收益递减规律;部分G20国家臃肿的法治体系与其服务贸易创新发展的需求不相适应。针对时间影响的稳健性结果和针对收入影响的稳健性结果表明,随着政府规模或法治水平等制度安排日渐稳固,经济因素则成为推动服务贸易发展的主要动力。

Based on the panel data of G20 countries,the relationship between the size of government,the level of the rule of law and the development of service trade is tested,and the robustness of the empirical results is tested.The study found that the government scale has an obvious double path transfer effect in promoting the development of service trade,that is,the government scale affects the development of service trade through two different channels;the level of rule significantly inhibits the development of service trade.The possible reason is that the level of rule as the institutional factor of economic development,which also is marginal diminishing.Some G20 countries’bloated legal system is not suited to the needs of innovation and development of service trade.The robustness results of time effects and income effects showed as follows:With institutional arrangements of the size of government and the rule of law becoming stable,economic factors is the main driver to promote the development of trade in services.