福建省2006—2015年度呼吸道传染病与气候因素关联分析

Analysis of the Association between Intestinal Infectious Diseases and Climate Factors of Fujian Province in 2006—2015

目的:分析福建省呼吸道传染病流行情况,探讨气候因素与福建省呼吸道传染病疫情的关联情况。方法:收集福建省2006—2015年呼吸道传染病监测资料及同期气象数据,采用描述性流行病学分析呼吸道传染病疫情概况,采用相关分析探查气候因素与呼吸道传染病疫情的关系。结果:2006—2015年全省共报告呼吸道传染病病例发病449 494例,年平均发病率为120.95/10万。各年报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(F=200.07,P<0.01),年平均递减率为2.0%,疫情呈现双高峰,第一个高峰出现在4—7月,第二个高峰出现在11月到次年1月。肺结核、猩红热、风疹、流感、流行性腮腺炎(流腮)、麻疹和水痘均与气象因素存在关联,有统计学意义(P<0.05)。发病前第7、14、21和28天的各气候因素与疾病的关联程度强于当天。结论:福建省呼吸道传染病发病呈现下降趋势,肺结核、猩红热、风疹、流感、流腮、麻疹和水痘均与气候因素存在关联,并且具有不同程度的滞后效应。

Objective:To analyze the epidemic situation of Respiratory infectious diseases in Fujian Province and discuss the connection between climatic factors and Respiratory infectious diseases in Fujian Province.Methods:The collection of Respiratory infectious disease surveillance data and the meteorological data for the same period in Fujian Province from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the epidemic situation of Respiratory infectious diseases.Correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between climatic factors and the outbreak of Respiratory infectious diseases.Results:From 2006 to 2015,a total of 449 494 cases of intestinal infectious diseases were reported in the province,and the annual average incidence rate was 120.950/100 000.The reported incidence rate in all years showed an upward trend,with a statistically significant difference(F=200.07,P<0.01).The average annual decrease rate was 2.0%.The incidence peaks were observed during April to July and November to January.Tuberculosis,scarlet fever,rubella,flu,salivation,measles and chickenpox are all associated with meteorological factors and are statistically significant(P<0.05).The degree of association between climatic factors and diseases before 7 days,14 days,21 days and 28 days.Was stronger than that of the day.Conclusion:The incidence of Respiratory infectious diseases in Fujian had decreased year by year.Tuberculosis,scarlet fever,rubella,flu,salivation,measles and chickenpox were associated with climatic factors and had lag effects.