基于用户属性的微博舆情演化仿真研究

Simulation Research on Micro-blog Public Opinion Evolution Based on User Attributes

把握社会事件网络舆情的发展规律,对增强政府管理能力、维持社会舆论稳定有着重要意义。基于微博用户属性和行为分析,综合考虑微博舆情演化的主要推动因素及其关联关系,应用元胞自动机方法,构建了社会事件的微博舆情演化模型,并以MATLAB为仿真工具,采集新浪微博中"于欢案"的相关数据,进行了仿真。结果表明,在微博舆情演化过程中,政府可以通过提高参与力度和活跃程度、增加政务微博数量等方式来更好地发挥政府的舆情引导和社会管理作用。

It is of great significance to strengthen the government management ability and maintain the stability of public opinion in grasping the law of the development of public opinion in social events.This paper constructs the micro-blog public opinion evolution model based on the cellular automata by analyzing attributes and behavior of the users,and considering the main driving factors of micro-blog public opinion evolution and their related relations.Then,the simulation experiment with MATLAB was carried out by collecting the relevant data of the Yu Huan event in Sina micro-blog.The simulation results show that the government can better play the government’s public opinion guidance and social management function by improving the participation and activity,increasing the number of government micro-blog in the process of micro-blog public opinion evolution.