中国省际区域协同减排演化机理及分布动态

EVOLUTIONAL MECHANISM AND DISTRIBUTING DYNAMIC OF PROVINCIAL SYNDICATED EMISSION REDUCTION IN CHINA

推进区域协同减排是实现区域减排目标的重要举措。从区域协同减排比较优势、区域协同减排联系、区域协同减排努力程度3个维度构建区域协同减排评价指标体系,运用哈肯模型建立区域协同减排演化方程,测算2008—2017年中国省际区域协同减排水平,并分析其演化机理,最后运用Kernel密度估计法剖析区域协同减排水平的分布动态。研究表明:区域减排联系是中国省际区域协同减排演化的序参量,主导着区域协同减排演化进程;区域减排联系和区域减排比较优势共同促进中国省际区域协同减排系统发展;中国省际区域协同减排水平呈现"东部>中部>西部"的特征,尚处于以区域减排联系为驱动的初级阶段;中国省际区域协同减排水平具有典型的区域差异特征,东部区域差异呈扩大趋势且多级分化现象加强,中部呈"扩大—缩小—扩大"趋势,西部地区呈扩大趋势。

Regional syndicated emission reduction is a vital step to realize the regional emission reduction target. This paper establishes the evaluation index system of regional syndicated emission reduction from three dimensions, relative advantage, connection and diligence of regional syndicated emission reduction. Haken model is employed to set up regional syndicated emission reduction evolution function with its evolutional mechanism analyzed and China’s provincial syndicated emission reduction level from 2008 to 2017 measured. This paper also applies Kernel density to estimate its dynamic evolution. Regional emission reduction connection is an order parameter, leading the evolutional process, and promoting the systematic development of China’s provincial syndicated emission reduction together with relative advantage of regional syndicated emission reduction. China’s provincial syndicated emission reduction level diminishes westward, and is at the preliminary stage. A typical regional variance in China’s provincial syndicated emission reduction level, rising with multiple differentiation in the east, rising-descending-rising in the center and rising in the west.