产业结构差异背景下城镇化的生态效应研究——基于非线性视角

ECOLOGICAL EFFECT OF URBANIZATION UNDER VARIABLE INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES FROM NON-LINEAR PERSPECTIVE

基于环境库兹涅茨假说,采用2001—2014年我国各省的面板数据,建立面板平滑转换回归模型,实证分析产业结构、金融发展和城镇化水平对我国地区生态环境污染的非线性影响,探讨如何在区域产业结构差异的背景下有针对性地推进绿色城镇化。研究结果表明,当工业化水平较低时,城镇化水平每提高1%,环境压力下降0.548 6%,推进城镇化可有效遏制生态环境污染。随着工业化水平的提高,推进城镇化转而对环境污染产生促进作用,城镇化水平每提高1%,生态环境压力提高1.383 2%。金融发展、工业化、研发投入以及能源消费的增加会造成环境污染,而提升人力资本能够显著降低环境污染。最后,从模型设定的视角对实证结果进行稳健性检验,验证了结论的稳健性。

This paper, based on environmental Kuznets hypothesis, uses China’s provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014 to establish panel smooth transition regression model, which is used to analyze the non-linear influence of industrial structure, financial development and urbanization level on eco-environmental pollution, and to discuss how to push green urbanization under variable regional industrial structures. Urbanization level rises by 1%, the environmental pressure falls by 0.548 6% at a lower industrialization, implying that urbanization may effectively suppress eco-environmental pollution. As industrialization level develops, urbanization level rises by 1%, the environmental pressure increases by 1.383 2%. Financial development, industrialization, and research and development input and energy consumption increment will worsen environmental pollution, which can be predominantly decreased by raising human capital. This paper verifies of the model stability.