基于主成分分析法的安徽省房地产市场泡沫程度研究

Research on the Degree of Real Estate Bubble in Anhui Province Based on Principal Component Analysis

采用主成分分析法,基于安徽省房地产市场发展状况,选取7个测度作为评价指标。通过降维,对2010～2016年安徽省房地产泡沫指标进行处理,构建其泡沫量化函数,并进行实证分析。研究表明,在2010～2016年期间,安徽省个别年份房地产市场出现了泡沫,且波动较为剧烈。但近年来其泡沫消失,房地产市场整体趋于稳定。

By way of adopting principal component analysis method and combined with the condition of the development of real estate market in Anhui Province, seven measurement indicators are selected as the raw data. Through the dimension reduction, the 2010-2016 Anhui real estate bubble index is processed, and a bubble quantification function is constructed and empirically analyzed. Studies show that during the period of 2010-2016, there was a real estate bubble in individual years in Anhui Province, and the fluctuations were relatively severe. However, in recent years, the bubble has disappeared and the real estate market as a whole has stabilized.