变中求稳的中国工业经济——2018年回顾与2019年展望

Seeking Stability in Changing Circumstances: Review of China's Industrial Economy in 2018 and Outlook for 2019

2018年,中国工业经济呈现出降中趋稳结构优化的总体特征,高技术制造业加快增长,工业投资回升,同时,国际环境不稳定不确定因素较为突出,国内经济正处在结构调整关键期,工业经济发展仍面临不少隐忧和挑战,存在工业企业经济效益回落,工业企业营运能力下降,回款难度增大以及汽车行业增长显著放缓等问题。2019年,中国工业经济面临的最大不确定性仍是外部环境的变化,规模以上工业增加值增速的概率较大;中国工业经济发展应充分体现短期应对与中长期改革发展相结合思想,一方面,努力扩需求,实现工业经济平稳增长;另一方面,继续保持战略定力和战略耐心,深化供给侧结构性改革,全力推动工业经济高质量发展;进而提出政策建议:扩需求稳增长、强化质量提升、实质性减税降费、提升技术创新制度环境、创造良好的融资环境。

In 2018, China's industry showed the overall characteristics of stabilization and structural optimization. High-tech manufacturing industry accelerated and industrial investment rebounded. At present, we should also realize that the international environment is still unstable and uncertain, the domestic economy is in a period of structural adjustment, there are still many problems in China's economic operation.Recently, the economic benefits of industrial enterprises fell, the operating capacity of industrial enterprises declined, the difficulty of repayment increased, and the growth of automobile industry slowed down significantly. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial added value above scale in 2019 will be 5.9%-6.4%. In 2019, the greatest uncertainty facing China's industrial economy is still the change of external environment. Therefore, China's industrial economic development should fully embody the idea of combining short-term response with medium-term and long-term reform and development. On the one hand, it should expand demand and strive to achieve steady growth of industrial economy, on the other hand, it should continue to maintain strategic stability and patience, deepen supply-side structural reform and make every effort to promote the high-quality development of the industrial economy. Then five specific policy proposals are put forward, including expanding demand and maintaining steady growth, steadily increasing quality, substantially reducing taxes and fees, improving technological innovation system environment and creating a good financing environment.