宁夏中北部灌区玉米秃尖比与气象条件关系研究

Relationship between Maize Baldness and Meteorological Conditions in the Middle-north Irrigation Area in Ningxia

宁夏中北部灌区是我国重要的粮食产区,玉米种植区域广泛,但玉米秃尖现象比较普遍,常造成玉米减产,因此加强灌区玉米秃尖的研究有重要意义。利用灌区4个站点的多年气象数据和作物生育状况观测记录年报表,运用相关分析方法和回归分析方法对玉米秃尖比与气象条件关系进行研究。结果表明:气象因子影响玉米秃尖比最关键的时期分别是8月上旬、7月下旬、7月中旬,对应的关键生育期是抽雄期、开花吐丝期、灌浆前期;影响玉米秃尖比的关键气象因子为7月中旬～8月上旬平均温度、日最高气温≥32℃的天数、累计日照时数;建立玉米秃尖比与关键气象因子的多元回归模型,验证效果较为理想。研究结果深入分析了气象条件影响灌区玉米秃尖比的关键时期和关键因子,并通过建立模型对玉米秃尖比进行预测,为指导农业生产和农田管理提供依据。

The middle-north irrigation area in Ningxia is an important maize-producing area. The maize cultivation area is extensive, but the phenomenon of maize baldness is common, which often results in the reduction of maize production.Therefore, it is of great significance to strengthen the study of maize baldness in irrigation area. The meteorological data and annual report of crop growth status observation records of the four stations for many years in the irrigation district was used to study the relationship between the maize baldness and meteorological conditions by using the relevant analysis methods and regression analysis methods. The results showed that the most critical periods of meteorological factors affecting maize baldness were early August, late July and mid-July, and the key growth period of the corresponding crop growth period that can affect the maize baldness was the male flowering and silking stage. The key meteorological factors of maize baldness were the average temperature from mid-July to early August, the number of high-temperature days above 32 ℃, and the cumulative number of sunshine hours. The multivariate regression model of maize baldness ratio and key meteorological factors was established, and the verification effect was ideal. The results of the study deeply analyzed the key periods and key factors affecting the maize baldness in the irrigation area by meteorological conditions, and predicted the maize baldness ratio by establishing a model to provide a basis for guiding agricultural production and farmland management.