闽浙皖城市群碳排放市际时空差异及产业关联分析

Inter-city Spatial-TemporalDifferences in CO_2 Emissions and Industrial CorrelationAnalysis in Fujian,Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces

浙江、福建和安徽三省城市群产业发展各具特色,不同城市之间的碳排放和经济社会发展水平各异。研究选取闽浙皖36个城市2005年和2012年的碳排放和产业结构等截面数据,以碳排放总量和国内生产总值为指标进行k-means聚类分析,并运用灰色关联分析法将不同组别城市类型的碳排放强度分别与第一、二和三产业结构进行关联分析,进而揭示了碳排放和产业关联性的时空分异情况。研究结果表明:安徽与福建两省城市在不同的经济发展和碳排放水平上呈现出区域集聚的特点,而浙江省的城市在分类上则较为分散;不同于大空间尺度(第三产业对碳排放的抑制效应随着时间推移逐渐减少),在SHE-SHE组和SLE-SLE组城市尺度上第三产业对碳排放的抑制效应随着时间推移而增大;发展水平相对较低城市的碳强度主要受第一产业而非第三产业影响。最后,就如何挖掘碳减排潜力、制定差异化的城市产业低碳发展战略和产业政策提出了建议。

The industrial development in Fujian, Zhejiang and Anhui has its own characteristics, and different prefecture-level cities show different levels in economic performance and carbon emissions. By selecting the cross-section data of carbon emission and industrial structureof 2005 and 2012 from 36 prefecture-level cities in Fujian, Zhejiang and Anhui, this paperuses carbon emission and gross domestic product as indicators to conduct k-means clustering analysis;by using gray correlationanalysis, the paper conducts correlation analysis on carbon emission intensity of cities of different types and the structure of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries to reveal the spatial-temporal difference of carbon emission and industrial correlation.The results show that:cities in Anhui and Fujian have the characteristics of regional agglomeration in different economic development and carbon emission levels, while cities in Zhejiang Province are more scattered in classification;different from large spatial scales (where the inhibitory effect of the tertiary industry on carbon emission decreases with time), the inhibitory effect of the tertiary industry on carbon emissions in the SHE-SHE and SLE-SLE groups increases with time;the carbon intensity of cities with relatively low development levels is mainly affected by the primary industry rather than the tertiary industry. Finally, the papers proposes suggestions on exploringpotential of reducing carbon emissions, and making differentiated urban low-carbon development strategy and industrial policies.