“一带一路”国家贸易的经济收敛效应及中国影响的研究

Study on the Economic Convergence Effect of Trade of Countries along “The Belt and Road” and China's Effect

中国开放经济的高速发展影响了世界南北经济收敛,加强与中国的贸易将如何影响南方发展中国家的经济收敛呢?以2002—2016年"一带一路"沿线国家的面板数据为例,构建空间计量模型实证分析了区域经济增长的β收敛性、影响β收敛的相关因素以及中国贸易的影响。研究表明:"一带一路"国家的经济增长受沿线周边邻居的影响非常显著。绝对β收敛速率为每年1. 27%;加入控制变量的条件β收敛模型中,资本和社会稳定指标对"一带一路"国家经济增长收敛的贡献为正,贸易开放度对其作用为负。与中国的双边贸易对"一带一路"区域经济收敛有显著的促进作用,显示了中国贸易的积极作用。

The rapid development of China s open economy has affected the economic convergence of the North and South of the world. How will strengthening trade with China affect the economic convergence of the developing country?Based on the panel data of the countries along "The Belt and Road" from 2002 to 2016,this paper constructs a spatial econometric model to empirically analyze the β convergence of regional economic growth, the related factors affecting β convergence and the impact of China s trade. Studies have shown that:The economic growth of the countries along "The Belt and Road" is significantly affected by neighbors along the route. The rate of convergence is 1.27% annually. And in the conditional β convergence model with controlling variables added, the indexes of capital and social stability have a positive contribution to the economic convergence of the countries along "The Belt and Road", and the opening degree of trade has a negative effect on it. Bilateral trade with China played a significant role in promoting regional economic convergence for "The Belt and Road" region, which shows the positive role of China s trade.