美国挑起贸易争端:是良方抑或毒药?

Trade Disputes Provoked by the U.S.: Cure or Poison?

文章梳理了历史上美国挑起贸易争端后美国贸易和经济表现,阐述了本轮争端的原因,分析指出贸易战改变不了美国贸易逆差的长远趋势,且争端将加剧金融市场波动,给美国经济带来冲击,让美联储货币政策陷入两难。因此,中美双方最终将形成合作双赢互惠的谈判结果。文章同时给出了相关投资建议。

The article reviews the historical trade and economic performance of the United States after the US provoked trade disputes, and explains the reasons behind the current US-China trade dispute. It points out that trade wars cannot change the long-term trend of the US trade deficits and such disputes would exacerbate the volatility of the financial markets and would have an impact on the US economy and make the Fed’s monetary policy in a dilemma. Therefore, the United States and China will eventually come up with a cooperative, win-win and mutual beneficial outcome in the trade negotiations. The article also offers relevant investment advices.