美元汇率周期及对中国跨境资金流动的冲击

The US Dollar Exchange Rate Cycle and Its Impact on China's Cross-Border Capital Flows

美元汇率周期长期取决于美国经济与世界经济相对强弱,中短期则取决于美欧经济强弱对比和利差。全球资产配置活动对美元需求的变化是美元汇率周期中短期走势的重要影响因素,政治、军事等重大事件则是美元汇率周期的主要非经济扰动因素。美元汇率周期主导全球资本流动规模和方向,对中国跨境资金流动有着显著影响。

The US dollar cycle depends, in the long run, on the strength of the US economy relative to the world economy, and in the short-to-medium term, on the US-EU interest rate spread and the economic strength of the US relative to that of Europe. Changes in demands for dollars in global asset allocation activities are important in affecting the short-term trend of the US dollar cycle. Major political and military events are the main non-economic disturbance factors for the US dollar exchange rate cycle. The US dollar exchange rate cycle dominates the scale and direction of global capital flows and has a significant impact on China's cross-border capital flows.