关于金融周期的观点综述

A Review of the Study on the Financial Cycle Theory

金融周期相关理论认为金融体系具有内在不稳定性和顺周期性,将金融影响宏观经济的机制扩大到信用和资产价格,提出金融周期变化对经济衰退风险有显著预测作用。其全球同步变化又演变为全球金融周期,导致全球实际利率下滑并影响货币政策独立性。建议将金融周期因素纳入货币政策分析框架,采取宏观审慎政策作为货币政策的补充以应对全球资本流动的冲击,并加强主要经济体货币政策合作。

The financial cycle theory believes that the financial system is inherently unstable and pro-cyclical. It expands the influence mechanism of finance on the macroeconomy to credit and asset prices, and suggests that the financial cycle can play a significant role in predicting economic recession risk. The global synchronization of the indicators of financial cycle means there is a global financial cycle, which may lead to a global decline in real interest rates and affect the independence of monetary policy. It is recommended to incorporate financial cycle factors into the monetary policy analysis framework, adopt macroprudential policies as a supplement to monetary policy to cope with global capital flow shocks, and strengthen the monetary policy cooperation among major economies.