村镇易涝区动态洪水风险分析模型研究

Dynamic Flood Risk Analysis Model for Waterlogged Areas in Villages and Towns

国内广大村镇地区的防洪工程措施较为薄弱,防洪标准也较低,进行洪水风险分析研究可以作为非常重要的非工程型措施。以海南万宁市万城镇易涝区洪水风险分析为例,基于一维、二维耦合水动力学模型构建了万城镇易涝区洪水风险分析模型,利用历史洪涝资料验证了模型的可靠性。考虑到实际防汛中洪水来源的不确定性,在模型中引入降雨、潮位等动态风险因子实现了万城镇易涝区动态洪水风险分析模型,实现了针对任意降雨、潮位边界条件下的洪水风险分析。研究成果对村镇地区的洪涝预测预警、抢险救灾等工作具有参考价值。

The flood control engineering measures in the vast number of villages and towns in China are relatively weak, and the flood control standards are also low. The flood risk analysis and research can be regarded as a very important non-engineering measure. Taking the flood risk analysis of Wancheng Town as an example, which is located in Wanning City, Hainan Province, this paper constructs a flood risk analysis model based on the one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic model, and uses the historical flood data to verify the reliability of the model. Considering the uncertainty of the flood source in the actual flood control, the dynamic risk factors such as rainfall and tide level are introduced into the model to realize the dynamic flood risk analysis model of waterlogged areas in Wancheng Town, and the flood risk analysis under arbitrary rainfall and tidal boundary conditions is realized. The research results have reference value for flood forecasting,early warning,rescue and disaster relief in villages and towns.