“脱实向虚”与“脱虚向实”:基于动态宏观经济效应的分析

“From the Real to the Virtual”or“From the Virtual to the Real”: An Analysis based on Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects

随着虚拟资产的膨胀化发展以及实体制造业的持续低迷,资金"脱实向虚"现象愈发严重,各界对其"脱虚向实"充满期待。通过构建时变参数计量经济模型,本文分析中国虚拟经济与实体经济在经济周期的不同经济时期对宏观经济中的产出、通货膨胀以及就业水平的时变性冲击效应,研究表明:中国虚拟经济在经济繁荣时期和经济萧条时期对产出具有促进作用,在经济平稳时期对产出具有"挤出效应",其冲击效果的改变主要是由于虚拟经济膨胀化发展使虚、实经济逐渐"背离";虚拟经济与实体经济在经济繁荣时期对通货膨胀均具有促进作用,而在经济萧条时期,虚拟经济对通货膨胀仍具有促进作用,实体经济对通货膨胀具有抑制作用;虚拟经济与实体经济在经济平稳时期对通货膨胀均具有抑制作用,冲击效果的改变主要是由于市场总需求以及货币流动性发生改变;虚拟经济与实体经济在不同的经济时期对就业具有抑制作用,根源在于市场经济转轨、经济增长方式转变以及产业结构失衡等均会对就业产生不利冲击,虚拟经济对实体经济的"挤出效应"更加抑制了就业水平。当前中国正处在经济周期的平稳期,经济"脱实向虚"对宏观经济各指标均产生不利影响,协调好虚、实经济的关系尤为重要,而引导经济"脱虚向实"更要重视经济增长方式的转型及产业结构的调整这些深层次因素的影响。

With the expansion of virtual assets and the continued downturn in the physical manufacturing industry, the phenomenon of “the transfer of capital from the real to the virtual” has become more and more serious, which has led to expectations of “the transfer of capital from the virtual to the real”. By constructing a time-varying parameter econometric model, the paper analyzes the time-varying shock effects of China′s virtual economy and real economy on macroeconomic output, inflation and employment levels in different economic periods of business cycle. It is found that: China′s virtual economy has a positive effect on output during economic prosperity and economic depression, and has a “crowding out effect” during economic stability, and the change of the impact is mainly due to the“deviating” of the virtual economy and the real economy led by expansion of virtual economy;during the period of economic prosperity, both the virtual economy and the real economy have a positive effect on inflation, during the period of economic depression, the virtual economy can still promote inflation, while the real economy has an inhibitory effect on inflation;during the period of economic stability, both the virtual economy and the real economy have an inhibitory effect on inflation,and the change of the impact is mainly due to changes in market demand and currency liquidity;in different economic periods, both the virtual economy and the real economy have an inhibitory effect on employment, the root cause lies in the transition of the market economy, the transformation of economic growth mode and the imbalance of industrial structure, which will adversely affect employment, and the “crowding out effect” of the virtual economy on the real economy has further suppressed the level of employment. At present, China is in a stable period of economic cycle, the transfer of economy from the real to the virtual would make adversely effects on objective economic indicators, thus leading that it is particularly important to coordinate the relationship between virtual economy and real economy, and some deep-seated factors such as the adjustment of industrial structure and transfer of economic structure should be given more attention when guiding the transfer of economy from the virtual to the real.