综合交通发展指数构建研究

Research on Construction of Comprehensive Transportation Development Index

为衡量交通运输行业总体发展水平,把握行业发展中的薄弱环节,亟需一个涵盖综合交通主要方面的综合性指标。在研究指标选取原则及数据可获得性的基础上,构建了综合交通发展评价指标体系,编制了目标层指数及各属性层指数,并对综合交通总体发展水平、各属性层发展情况及其与国内生产总值的关系进行分析。目标层指数分析结果显示,综合交通总体发展向好,呈稳定上升的态势。属性层指数分析结果显示,综合交通在基础设施、服务能力方面发展迅猛,在安全保障方面的稳定性有待进一步提高,在绿色发展方面进展较为缓慢。回归分析结果显示,综合交通发展指数与国内生产总值高度相关,回归模型对样本数据的拟合程度较高,因此综合交通发展指数可用于国内生产总值的预测。

In order to measure the overall development level of the transportation industry and grasp the weak links in the development of the industry,a comprehensive index covering major aspects of comprehensive transportation was needed.On the basis of fully considering the principle of index selection and data availability,a comprehensive transportation development evaluation index system was constructed, the target level index and each attribute level index were compiled, then the overall development level and each attribute level of comprehensive transportation,and the relation between comprehensive transportation development index and GDP(Gross Domestic Product) were analyzed.The target level index analysis results show that the overall development of comprehensive transportation is good and appears a steady upward trend;the attribute level index analysis results show that comprehensive transportation develops rapidly in infrastructure and service capacity,the stability of security needs to be further improved,the progress of green development is relatively slow.The results of correlation and regression analysis show that the comprehensive transportation development index is highly correlated with GDP,the regression model has high fitting degree with the sample data and can be used for the forecast of gross domestic product.