高速公路运营安全风险评价研究

Safety Risk Assessment of Expressway Operation

为防止高速公路运营期间发生生产安全事故,准确判定安全风险状况,首先,基于影响运营安全的主要风险因素,建立安全风险评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法确定各评价指标权重。然后,运用灰色关联法确定比较序列(评价对象)和标准序列(评价标准),建立风险判断矩阵以计算比较序列与标准序列的关联度,其中最大关联度所对应的标准向量等级即为高速公路运营安全风险等级。最后,以我国广东省某山区高速公路运营为例进行验证。结果表明,该研究成果可对高速公路运营安全风险状况进行定量综合评价,并可以找出薄弱环节及时加以处置,实现事故的主动预防管理。

In order to prevent safety accidents during expressway operation and to accurately determine the safety risk situation,firstly based on the main risk factors affecting operational safety,a safety risk assessment index system was established,and the weight of each assessment index was determined by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Then,the grey correlation method was used to determine the comparison array (assessment object) and the criteria array (assessment criteria),and a risk judgment matrix was established to calculate the correlation degree between the comparison array and the criteria array.The standard vector level corresponding to the maximum correlation degree was the safety risk level of expressway operation.Finally,the operation of an expressway in a mountainous area of Guangdong Province in China was taken as an example to verify the validity of the method.The result shows that the proposed method can quantitatively and comprehensively evaluates the safety risk status of expressway operation,identify and deal with the weakness in time,so as to realize the active prevention and management of accidents.