乡—城、城—城流动人口居留意愿的影响因素研究

A Study on Factors Affecting Migratory Intentions of Rural-urban and Urban-urban Floating Population

为了促进人口流入并融入城市,基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,利用逐步回归的方法,从个人、家庭和社会经济三个层面对流动人口的居留意愿进行研究,发现不同因素对不同户籍流动人口居留意愿的影响方向基本一致,但程度有所不同。个人特征中性别、婚姻和教育程度等变量对流动人口居留意愿均有显著影响;家庭特征中子女随迁、自有住房和较高的家庭收入等变量,能够较大地提高流动人口的居留意愿,尤其是自有住房;从社会经济特征的维度看,参加养老保险对流动人口的居留意愿并无显著的促进作用。建议进一步完善流动人口的住房保障制度、随迁家庭的配套政策,并提高其对养老保险的认知度和信任度。

Based on the dynamic data of floating population in 2016, this paper studies floating population s migratory intentions using stepwise regression method from three angles, i.e., personal, family and social economy.The results show that different factors have the same influential direction but with different degrees.Such personal factors as gender, marriage and education produce significant impacts on their intentions;such family factors as migrant workers relocated children, higher household income, and house ownership in particular, can greatly increase their residing preference;as to social economy, there is no close link between endowment insurance their residing preference.This paper proposes to upgrade housing security system of the floating population, the supporting policies of migrant workers relocated children, and improve their awareness of and trust in endowment insurance.