2013—2017年无锡市梁溪区肺结核疫情时空分布特征

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Liangxi District, Wuxi City (2013-2017)

目的分析2013—2017年无锡市梁溪区肺结核发病的时空分布特征,探寻梁溪区肺结核疫情防治重点区域。方法数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统结核病管理信息系统,整理2013—2017年梁溪区16个街道肺结核报告发病数据和人口数据,采用OpenGeoDa1.2.0软件进行空间自相关分析,采用SaTScan 9.4.1软件进行时空扫描分析,最后采用ArcGIS 10.2软件实现结果的可视化。结果 2013—2017年梁溪区累计报告肺结核病例1 522例,年均报告发病率38.55/10万,发病率总体呈下降趋势从61.02/10万下降到27.82/10万(趋势χ~2=26.13,P=0.00)。全局上无空间自相关。局部自相关分析结果显示,其中"高-高"聚集区主要位于上马墩、广瑞路和崇安寺街道。时空扫描分析结果显示肺结核一级聚集区位于崇安寺街道及其周边街道,时间跨度为2014—2015年,辐射半径为3.34km,LLR=33.63,RR=1.71,P=0.00。结论梁溪区总体肺结核疫情为较低水平,中心城区街道为肺结核的"高-高"聚集区,是梁溪区肺结核重点防治区域。

Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Liangxi District of Wuxi City in 2013-2017, and identify the key areas for tuberculosis prevention and control. Methods Data was obtained from Tuberculosis Management Information System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. OpenGeoDa1.2.0 software was used for autocorrelation analysis, SatScan 9.4.1 software was used for statistical analysis of spatial scanning, and geographic information system was used for visualization. Results A total of 1 522 PTB cases were reported during 2013-2017 in Liangxi District, and the average annual reported incidence of tuberculosis was 38.55 per 100 000. The reported incidence rate of PTB in Liangxi decreased from 61.02/100 000 to 27.82/100 000 (χ^2=26.13, P=0.00). There was no global spatial autocorrelation. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that "high-high" areas were located in Shangmadun, Guangruilu and Chongansi. Spatial and temporal scanning analysis revealed that Chongansi and its surrounding streets with radius of 3.34 km (LLR=33.63,RR=1.71, P=0.00) were the main spatial and clustering areas during 2014-2015. Conclusion In Liangxi District, the overall epidemic situation of PTB was at a low level. The central urban streets of Liangxi were the "hing-hing" clustering areas of tuberculosis, which are the key areas for future prevention and treatment of tuberculosis in Liangxi District.